Content type

The Future of Energy: Navigating the Trilemma in the Global North and South

world triangles

By Ehizele Dean Okoduwa, Yale CBEY 2050 Fellow

 

Energy powers everything around us. Without it, you would not be reading this right now. While the necessity for energy is undisputed, discussions about the future of energy remain complex and divisive. At the heart of this debate lies the challenge of balancing energy security, affordability and sustainability – the core principles of the Energy Trilemma. In a session of the Center for Business and Environment (CBEY) 2050 Fellows program, we explored the "Future of Energy" through the lens of the Energy Trilemma framework1 and examined why a balanced reimagined approach to these challenges is critical for our future.

The energy trilemma framework highlights the tensions that exist between energy security, which focuses on a country’s ability to meet its energy demand, energy equity, which considers access and affordability, and sustainability which considers the environmental impact of providing. One of the most striking takeaways from the discussion is that the energy trilemma manifests differently in the Global North, compared to the Global South, which have different infrastructural and socio-economic contexts. The trilemma considerations provide for interesting questioning. However, simply questioning as done in prior conversations may not yield the best outcome. The ideal first question should aim to change the frame of these strategic discussions – What if we approached these challenges differently? What strategies could open new doors rather than reinforce existing barriers?

A diagram of energy security Description automatically generated

1The energy trilemma framework was designed by the Energy Council and presented by Rap Diaz, Hagan Han and Cristina Mendoza Mora during the CBEY 2050 Fellows session on 31 January 2025

 

The Global North Perspective: the U.S. Story on Energy Security

We looked at the U.S. as a case study from the Global North, and energy security means controlling oil supplies, investing in domestic production, and securing supply chains for critical minerals. Significant changes from fossil fuels to renewable energy without compromising energy security remains a big debate in policy rooms. With the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the U.S. doubled down on onshoring clean energy operations, but as energy demand rises in the face of global disruptions, it is positioning to prioritize national resilience. Some of the strongest arguments beyond national security focus on the affordability of energy in a decarbonized economy as a growing concern, as energy prices fluctuate due to supply chain constraints and geopolitical tensions. Although the financial muscle and technological resources to scale clean energy exist, the U.S. has an aging power infrastructure that needs modernization to integrate more renewables while maintaining grid reliability.

In reimagining how we approach the energy trilemma for the U.S, one questions to ask is whether a more decentralized clean energy system could strengthen security and resilience. Instead of focusing purely on industrial-scale solar and wind farms, what if the U.S. put greater emphasis on distributed energy solutions, such as localized microgrids, community solar, and small-scale battery storage? Could a more decentralized grid reduce vulnerabilities to cyber threats, extreme weather, and geopolitical risks while making energy access more equitable? The traditional framing of the U.S. energy transition assumes that centralization equals security, and that innovation alone will drive equity. But what if decentralization was the missing link between security and access? And what role do businesses, policymakers, and communities play in making that shift? A separate line of reimagined questions can explore how energy security intersects with energy equity. If energy affordability remains a challenge for millions of Americans, are we really solving the trilemma, or are we just shifting the problem? Could businesses focus not just on traditional fossil fuel reliance or purely clean energy innovation but also on business models that make clean energy more accessible?

 

The Global South Perspective: Nigeria’s focus on energy equity

In the Global South, countries like Nigeria, face a different challenge with energy access and affordability topping the list as the most pressing issues. Nigeria has vast energy resources but does not have all its citizens connected to the grid due to underinvestment in the power sector. The future of energy for Nigeria is not just about reducing carbon emissions but about increasing energy access to drive economic development. Unlike the U.S., where the discussion revolves around supply chain control and grid modernization to reap the benefits of clean energy investments, conversations in Nigeria focus on building a stable energy infrastructure to deepen access and harness its resources for economic development. One common theme across conversations in the Global South is considerations for the role these countries should play in building a future with less emissions given their limited contribution to the emission concerns facing the world today. Their concern stem from the monumental investments that would be required to abandon existing systems to build sustainable industries from the ground up.

Using the same framework to explore opportunities beyond the barriers, different questions emerge. Should Nigeria focus first on making its existing energy operations more sustainable before transitioning to entirely new sources? Many oil and gas operations in the country remain inefficient, with high levels of flaring, leaks, and emissions. By improving operational efficiency, reducing methane leaks, and electrifying parts of the supply chain, could Nigeria lower emissions while using existing resources to finance broader clean energy investments? Can these countries industrialize in a way that is future-proof from the beginning.

 

Imagining the Future of Energy

These competing priorities increase the tension in policy and board rooms, but perhaps the challenge is that we can better frame the questions we ask. Instead of debating to make an immediate 100% shift to renewables, should we ask how existing industries can be more sustainable while building new ones? Instead of assuming that the energy transition must follow the same pattern everywhere, should we explore alternative models tailored to different economic realities?

For businesses, governments, and advocates, the real challenge is in rethinking the framework through which we define the problem to better answer the questions of what systems, and business models would shape our energy future. Our discussion left us with more questions than answers, which is progress. Asking better questions is not just an intellectual exercise; it is a strategic imperative. Businesses that rethink their approach today will be the ones leading the energy economy of the future. Governments that embrace new models rather than outdated frameworks will be the ones creating the most resilient energy systems.

 

About the CBEY 2050 Fellows Program

The CBEY 2050 Fellows are a multidisciplinary group of Yale graduate and professional students who come together in a monthly discussion circle to imagine a regenerative, resilient society and explore how business, government, and civil society can make that possible. As peers from across disciplines, we are navigating similar questions about how to understand the world and change it for the better. We gather to build community—and have meaningful and generative conversations that transform our work, our lives, and our world.

 

References